On Friday, the Oregon Health Authority released new modeling about the spread of COVID-19 in Oregon.

The model includes three future scenarios: one in which transmission continues at the current rate, one in which transmission decreases by 10 percent and one in which transmission increases by 10 percent.

The model projects that:

• If transmission continues at the current level during the next month, the estimated number of new daily infections will remain steady over the next four weeks at approximately 1,000 per day, and the number of daily new severe cases will increase slightly from 17 to 19.

• If transmission decreases by 10 percent and continues at that level during the next month, the model projects approximately 300 new infections per day and 9 new severe cases per day by Aug. 27.

• If transmission increases by 10 percent and continues at that level during the next month, the model projects approximately 2,300 new infections per day and 32 new severe cases per day by Aug. 27.

The results suggest that transmission increased substantially during May, then decreased somewhat in late June and early July. The model estimates the Re is currently about 1.0.

Despite the apparent leveling of transmission, the virus continues to spread in Oregon and continues to cause loss of life. OHA urges Oregonians to continue to wear face coverings, practice physical distancing, avoid large gatherings, and wash hands frequently.

COVID-19 has claimed nine more lives in Oregon for a total of 348 deaths.

Oregon Health Authority reported 423 new confirmed and presumptive cases of COVID-19 bringing the state total to 20,636.

The new cases reported today are in the following counties: Baker (1), Benton (3), Clackamas (16), Clatsop (1), Columbia (2), Deschutes (18), Douglas (3), Grant (1), Hood River (3), Jackson (12), Jefferson (5), Josephine (3), Klamath (1), Lane (13), Lincoln (1), Linn (6), Malheur (21), Marion (47), Morrow (21), Multnomah (110), Polk (7), Umatilla (53), Union (2), Wasco (3), Washington (53), and Yamhill (17).

Oregon’s 340th COVID-19 death is a 90-year-old man in Clackamas County who tested positive on July 30 and died on August 5. His place of death is being confirmed. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 341st COVID-19 death is an 80-year-old woman in Deschutes County who tested positive on July 20 and died on July 31. Place of death and presence of underlying conditions are being confirmed.

Oregon’s 342nd COVID-19 death is an 80-year-old man in Jackson County who tested positive on July 15 and died on August 6. His place of death is unavailable at this time. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 343rd COVID-19 death is a 75-year-old man in Jefferson County who tested positive on July 10 and died on August 5, at St. Charles Medical Center in Bend. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 344th COVID-19 death is a 64-year-old man in Klamath County who tested positive on July 27 and died on August 6, at Sky Lakes Medical Center. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 345th COVID-19 death is an 88-year-old man in Malheur County who tested positive on July 28 and died on August 2 in his residence. Presence of underlying conditions is being confirmed.

Oregon’s 346th COVID-19 death is a 75-year-old man in Marion County who tested positive on July 8 and died on August 5 in his residence. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 347th COVID-19 death is 94-year-old man in Umatilla County who tested positive on July 16 and died on August 4 in his residence. He had underlying conditions.

Oregon’s 348th COVID-19 death is a 93-year-old woman in Yamhill County who tested positive on July 28 and died on August 6. Place of death and presence of underlying conditions are being confirmed.

Brian Noe

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