Every Dec. 15, many media outlets (including this one) roll out stories signaling the start of “trade season.” That’s because today is the first day that most players who signed as free agents in the offseason are eligible to be traded.

And every year, most of these stories come with a caveat: just because teams have more flexibility to make trades right now doesn’t mean they will until closer to the Feb. 6 deadline.

But this year, there have been at least a couple of early movers, albeit making minor moves. On Friday, ESPN reported that Indiana agreed to a deal for Heat big man Thomas Bryant to shore up their frontcourt depth, and yesterday, Golden State agreed to a deal with Brooklyn for Dennis Schröder. Neither of these deals are earth-shattering, but they came well before teams usually start making trades. These could be one-off moves, or it could be a sign that teams aren’t going to wait until the deadline this year.

Where do the Trail Blazers figure into things?

It’s too early to say. But they have several players that should and will receive interest, and will undoubtedly be one of the teams most talked about around the NBA between now and February. That was the case last year, too, and Joe Cronin ended up standing pat with the exception of taking a no-risk flier on Dalano Banton that’s worked out exceptionally well.

It may be a quieter deadline across the league than the last few have been, as teams navigate a highly restrictive new CBA. (My buddy Fred Katz at The Athletic has a good breakdown of just how limited many teams are in what they can do, that I recommend reading.)

But the Blazers, at least right now, figure to be one of the teams most active teams in talks, whether or not deals end up getting done.

Here’s everything you need to know about Portland’s financial situation, what they have to work with and which players are most likely to be on the move.

The Financial Picture and Available Trade Tools

As of now, the Blazers are $3.6 million below the luxury tax. If they wanted to, they could cut another $1.1 million by waiving Banton, whose $2.2 million salary is only 50 percent guaranteed until Jan. 10. I’d be shocked if they did that, because Banton has been a productive rotation player. So, for our purposes, that $3.6 million number is where the Blazers are.

In addition to matching salary, Portland has three exceptions they can use to take back money. They have a $6.8 million trade exception from the Malcolm Brogdon-Deni Avdija trade on draft night, and their full mid-level ($12.8 million) and biannual ($4.6 million) exceptions, which under the new CBA can be used as trade exceptions if you didn’t use them to sign free agents. So the Blazers could take back a player making up to $12.8 million without sending out any salary if they wanted to, but being so close to the tax line, it wouldn’t make any sense to do that unless they significantly cut salary in another deal. But these are tools they do have if they want to use them.

Aside from their own draft pick, which is still tied up with Chicago through 2027, the Blazers have these picks from other teams that they could, in theory, include in a trade:

2025 second-round pick from Atlanta (only conveys if it lands between 31 and 40)
2026 second-round pick from Memphis (protected 31-42)
2027 second-round pick from Minnesota (unprotected)
2028 first-round pick swap rights with Milwaukee (unprotected)
The most and least favorable of three 2029 first-round picks between their own, Milwaukee and Boston (the second-most favorable of these picks was included in the Brogdon-Avdija trade)
The less favorable of Indiana’s or Washington’s 2029 second-round pick
2030 first-round pick swap rights with Milwaukee (unprotected)
2030 second-round pick from New York (unprotected)

It’s unlikely the Blazers trade away picks at the deadline. It’s not impossible if the absolutely perfect deal comes along, though. They did include picks in the Brogdon-Avdija trade with Washington in June, because they identified Avdija as an ideal target based on fit, age and contract and were highly motivated to get him. It’s theoretically possible another opportunity like that presents itself, but I’d bet against it at the moment.

One more note on trade mechanics: the Blazers currently have all 15 of their roster spots filled, and the only player whose contract isn’t fully guaranteed is Banton (who, as I said before, I don’t think they’ll cut unless it’s necessary to facilitate another deal). So if the Blazers take back multiple players for one in a deal, they have to open up the roster space somehow, either by waiving someone or sending out multiple players in another deal.

Which Players Will or Will Not Get Traded?

You’re really talking about five players here, and it’s five of the same six as last year (minus Brogdon, who they did trade this past summer).

Let’s get the rest out of the way quickly:

Only a handful of players in the entire league are truly “untouchable,” but it’s safe to say the Blazers won’t be interested in entertaining trade offers for Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Clingan or Toumani Camara.
Scoot Henderson’s second season has been up-and-down, and they still don’t know what he is long-term but he’s in the category of “worth more to the Blazers than he would be on the trade market.”
They just traded two first-round picks for Avdija and very much view him as a long-term piece, so he’s extremely unlikely to be moved.
Your mileage may vary on anyone below that in the rotation. I think the Blazers like Kris Murray and Rayan Rupert long-term the most out of any of the guys in that part of the hierarchy. My good friend and now Substack colleague Jake Fischer wrote an interesting piece a couple weeks ago on the increasing value of players on minimum contracts, and suggested that Duop Reath could be worth a couple of second-round picks on the trade market. Considering he’s been out of the rotation for most of the season, I have to think that’s something the Blazers would jump at. I could see them also being open to moving Jabari Walker or Banton, both of whom will be free agents this summer (restricted and unrestricted, respectively) given the uncertainty of where they fit in the future plans.

That leaves these five players, who are legitimately worth discussing as trade possibilities between now and February:

To read the full article from Sean Highkin, click here.

Sean Highkin Trail Blazers Insider